Crypto Trading & Investing Strategies
A practical guide to navigating crypto markets using fundamentals, technicals, and macro context.
1. Fundamental Analysis
A. Supply
- Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21M and halvings every 4 years (next: April 2028).
- Ethereum became deflationary post-Merge. See ultrasound.money for live stats.
- Many altcoins like SOL, AVAX have high emissions – track with TokenUnlocks.app.
B. Demand
- El Salvador holds over 5,700 BTC as a national reserve.
- BlackRock’s spot ETF approval pushed BTC to new ATHs in 2025.
- U.S. states like Texas & Wyoming exploring BTC reserves.
C. Adoption
- Metamask now exceeds 100M installs; Solana wallet Phantom gained 2M users in Q1 2025.
- Reddit’s crypto points system and Robinhood wallet expansion reflect retail growth.
D. Narrative
- AI tokens surged 400% in Q1 2024, led by FET, AGIX, and RNDR.
- 2023 was dominated by LSDs and restaking narratives (Lido, EigenLayer).
E. Manipulation
- BTC price dropped 8% in 5 minutes in August 2024 due to cascading liquidations on Binance.
- Market makers often push price into stop zones — learn to identify liquidity grabs.
F. Wallet Tracking & Smart Money Analysis
- Use Nansen, Arkham, and Lookonchain to track whale wallets and insiders.
- Monitor stablecoin inflows to exchanges to gauge market sentiment (e.g., $USDT on Binance).
- Track wallet behavior during narrative shifts (e.g., AI tokens in 2024, LRTs in 2025).
- Case: In early 2024, whales rotated into FET and RNDR before 3x rallies.
- Follow early liquidity providers and token unlocks using DeBank or Dune dashboards.
2. Technical Analysis
A. Indicators
- BTC 200 EMA acted as support through 2020–21 bull market.
- RSI divergence signaled ETH bottom in June 2022.
- Use TradingView to backtest setups visually.
B. Price Action
- Pin bars and inside bars on daily timeframes offer strong confluence with S/R zones.
- See BoS/ChoCH on ETH chart pre-breakout in Jan 2024.
C. Algorithmic Systems
- Python backtest: 50/200 EMA crossover system on BTC yielded 42% annualized since 2020.
- Use TradingView PineScript for live signals with alerts.
3. Macro Context
A. Money Supply (M2)
- BTC rallied ~300% in 2020 as M2 surged from COVID stimulus.
- Monitor FRED charts and global liquidity indices.
B. Economic Conditions
- High inflation in 2022–23 caused tightening, hurting risk assets.
- Markets rebounded in late 2024 with disinflation and dovish pivots.
C. Regulation
- SEC lawsuits against Coinbase & Ripple shaped altcoin classification.
- Spot ETF approvals in 2024 restored institutional confidence.
